How reliable Bitcoin metrics identify trend and cycle extremes
Part 2: Signal thresholds, current value of Bitcoin indicators and analysis
Reflection of the surrounding picture
Those indicator values show, there isn’t a (clear) sell signal generated yet.
Realised Cap HODL Waves and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) are approaching an area where they might generate a sell signal, but it does not have to do so necessarily.
PI cycle top indicator is very close to generate a concrete sell signal. Based on how the indicator calculates its nearly certain it will create a sell signal within the next 20 days.
Does that mean this is the end of the bull market? I don’t think so.
Does it mean the PI cycle top indicator will be wrong? It doesn’t have to.
You may ask yourself how it fits together?
Why the PI indicator might still be correct
In the past all of the before-mentioned sell indicators have been able to more a less describe the cycle top and providing confluence to each other.
In parallel some of the indicators created multiple sell signals within a cycle. Those sell signals where false signals in terms…
